Artificial neural network, genetic algorithm, and logistic regression applications for predicting renal colic in emergency settings.

BACKGROUND

Logistic regression is the most common statistical model for processing multivariate data in the medical literature. Artificial intelligence models like an artificial neural network (ANN) and genetic algorithm (GA) may also be useful to interpret medical data.

OBJECTIVE

The purpose of this study was to perform artificial intelligence models on a medical data sheet and compare to logistic regression.

METHODS

ANN, GA, and logistic regression analysis were carried out on a data sheet of a previously published article regarding patients presenting to an emergency department with flank pain suspicious for renal colic.

RESULTS

The study population was composed of 227 patients: 176 patients had a diagnosis of urinary stone, while 51 ultimately had no calculus. The GA found two decision rules in predicting urinary stones. Rule 1 consisted of being male, pain not spreading to back, and no fever. In rule 2, pelvicaliceal dilatation on bedside ultrasonography replaced no fever. ANN, GA rule 1, GA rule 2, and logistic regression had a sensitivity of 94.9, 67.6, 56.8, and 95.5%, a specificity of 78.4, 76.47, 86.3, and 47.1%, a positive likelihood ratio of 4.4, 2.9, 4.1, and 1.8, and a negative likelihood ratio of 0.06, 0.42, 0.5, and 0.09, respectively. The area under the curve was found to be 0.867, 0.720, 0.715, and 0.713 for all applications, respectively.

CONCLUSIONS

Data mining techniques such as ANN and GA can be used for predicting renal colic in emergency settings and to constitute clinical decision rules. They may be an alternative to conventional multivariate analysis applications used in biostatistics.