Use of an epiphytic lichen and a novel geostatistical approach to evaluate spatial and temporal changes in atmospheric deposition in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region, Alberta, Canada.

Temporal and spatial atmospheric deposition trends of elements to the boreal forest surrounding bitumen production operations in the Athabasca Oil Sands Region (AOSR), Alberta, Canada were investigated as part of a long-term lichen bioindicator study. The study focused on eight elements (sulfur, nitrogen, aluminum, calcium, iron, nickel, strontium, vanadium) that were previously identified as tracers for the major oil sand production sources. Samples of the in situ epiphytic lichen Hypogymnia physodes were collected in 2002, 2004, 2008, 2011, 2014, and 2017 within a ~150 km radius from the center of surface oil sand production operations in the AOSR. Site-specific time series analysis conducted at eight jack pine upland sites that were repeatedly sampled generally showed significant trends of increasing lichen concentrations for fugitive dust linked elements, particularly at near-field (<25 km from a major oil sands production operation) sample locations. Multiple regional scale geostatistical models were developed and evaluated to characterize broad-scale changes in atmospheric deposition based on changes in H. physodes elemental concentrations between 2008 and 2014. Empirical Bayesian kriging and cokriging lichen element concentrations with oil sands mining, bitumen upgrading, coke materials handling, and limestone quarry/crushing influence variables produced spatial interpolation estimates with the lowest validation errors. Gridded zonal mean lichen element concentrations were calculated for the two comprehensive sampling years (2008, 2014) and evaluated for spatial and temporal change. Lichen sulfur concentrations significantly increased in every grid cell within the domain with the largest increases (44-88%) in the central valley in close proximity to the major surface oil sand production operations, while a minor nitrogen concentration decrease (-20%) in a single grid cell was observed. The areal extent of fugitive dust element deposition generally increased with significantly higher deposition to lichens restricted to the outer grids of the enhanced deposition field, reflecting new and expanding surface mining activity.