Trends in urinary bladder cancer incidence in Sweden 1960-93 with special reference to histopathology, time period, birth cohort, and smoking.

This study investigates the incidence trends of urinary bladder cancer in Sweden from 1960 through 1993 (a total of 46,211 cases). Age-standardized incidence rates increased among men from 14.6 per 10(5) in 1960 to 33.5 in 1993 and among women from 4.8 to 8.8, corresponding to an average annual increase of 2.4 percent (95 percent confidence interval [CI]) = 2.0-2.7 percent) and 1.1 percent (CI = 0.9-1.4 percent), respectively. The largest increase occurred in the oldest age-groups. The proportion of patients with transitional cell carcinoma increased in men from 66.0 percent in 1960-64 to 93.6 percent in 1990-93 and in women from 61.0 percent to 89.4 percent. The proportion of patients with papillomas decreased, whereas those with adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma were stable. Regression modeling (based on the period 1960-89) showed a strong linear effect due to either period and/or cohort. Among men, additional non-linear effects by both period and cohort were obtained. The cohort effects were more important. Cohort data on having smoked daily showed considerable similarities with the estimated cohort-effects. Our findings suggest that the increase of tobacco smoking in successive generations can explain the increase in incidence rates of bladder cancer in Sweden, whereas improved diagnostic activities and registration are less likely to explain fully the changes in incidence rates.