Avoidable cancer cases in the Nordic countries - The impact of overweight and obesity.

Several types of cancers are causally linked to overweight and obesity, which are increasing in the Nordic countries. The aim of this study was to quantify the proportion of the cancer burden linked to overweight and obesity in the Nordic countries and estimate the potential for cancer prevention.

Under different prevalence scenarios of overweight and obesity, the number of cancer cases in the Nordic countries in the next 30 years (i.e. 2016-2045) was estimated for 13 cancer sites and compared to the projected number of cancer cases if the prevalence stayed constant. The Prevent macro-simulation model was used.

Over the period 2016-2045, 205,000 cancer cases out of the 2.1 million expected for the 13 cancer sites (9.5%) that have been studied, could be avoided in the Nordic countries by totally eliminating overweight and obesity in the target population. The largest proportional impact was found for oesophageal adenocarcinoma (24%), and the highest absolute impact was observed for colon (44638) and postmenopausal breast cancer (41135).

Decreased prevalence of overweight and obesity would reduce the cancer burden in the Nordic countries. The results from this study form an important step to increase awareness and priorities in cancer control by controlling overweight and obesity in the population.