Vomiting symptom of acute gastroenteritis estimated from epidemiological data can help predict river contamination by human pathogenic enteric viruses.

Contamination of fresh water bodies by human enteric viruses from wastewater discharge is a well-established phenomenon. Here we propose a model of viral contamination of rivers based on acute gastroenteritis epidemiology and assess how well it can simulate in situ experimental monitoring. Noroviruses, rotaviruses, enteroviruses, adenoviruses and hepatitis A viruses were quantified by molecular methods after water concentration. Water flows were obtained from the Hydro databank and wastewater treatment plant (WWTP) data. Acute gastroenteritis cases based on medical prescriptions were recorded by the French public health agency. We estimated the total number of daily viral acute gastroenteritis cases and modeled virus shedding and fate in WWTPs and rivers. Simulated virus concentrations were compared to the weighted sum of measured concentrations. Seasonal variations in viral acute gastroenteritis were predicted from vomiting occurrence. All viruses except hepatitis A virus were widely detected in wastewaters and river, in concentrations reaching 10⁺⁶ genome copies·L^-1 for adenoviruses in the Artière River. We were able to predict virus load in raw wastewater and in the Artière River. Estimated weighting coefficients showed the high impact of noroviruses GII. This model can thus serve to compare water treatment, discharge and reuse scenarios.