Grade 3 Pancreatic Neuroendocrine Tumors on MDCT: Establishing a Diagnostic Model and Comparing Survival Against Pancreatic Ductal Adenocarcinoma

OBJECTIVE. The purpose of this study is to establish a diagnostic model for differentiating grade 3 (G3) pancreatic neuroendocrine tumors (PNETs) from pancreatic ductal adenocarcinomas (PDACs) and to analyze survival outcomes. MATERIALS AND METHODS. Twenty patients with G3 PNETs and 58 patients with PDACs confirmed by surgery or biopsy were retrospectively included. Demographic and radiologic information was collected. Univariate analyses and binary logistic regression analyses were performed to identify independent factors and establish a diagnostic model. An ROC curve was created to determine diagnostic ability. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis was performed. RESULTS. Patients with G3 PNETs were more likely to present with normal carbohydrate antigen (CA) 19-9 levels, normal pancreatic ducts, and round tumors with well-defined margins and higher portal enhancement ratios than were patients with PDAC (p < 0.05). After multivariate analysis, a normal CA 19-9 level (odds ratio, 0.0125; 95% CI, 0.0008-0.2036), round tumor shape (odds ratio, 0.0143; 95% CI, 0.0004-0.5461), and pancreatic duct dilation of 4 mm or less (odds ratio, 17.9804; 95% CI, 1.0098-320.1711) were independent predictors of G3 PNETs. The AUC of the ROC curve was 0.916, and sensitivity and specificity were 90.0% and 81.0%, respectively. Furthermore, patients with G3 PNETs had better overall survival than patients with PDACs. Among patients in the G3 PNET subgroup, patients with liver or lymph node metastases had worse overall survival than patients without metastases. CONCLUSION. A diagnostic model was established to differentiate G3 PNETs from PDACs. A normal CA 19-9 level, round tumor shape, and pancreatic duct dilation of 4 mm or less were factors that were strongly predictive of G3 PNET.

Keywords: CT; carcinoma; neuroendocrine tumors; pancreas.