A Novel Staging System for De Novo Metastatic Breast Cancer Refines Prognostic Estimates

Objective: We aim to identify prognostic groups within a de novo metastatic cohort, incorporating both anatomic and biologic factors.

Background: Staging for breast cancer now includes anatomic and biologic factors, although the guidelines for stage IV disease do not account for how these factors may influence outcomes.

Methods: Adults with de novo metastatic breast cancer were selected from the National Cancer DataBase (2010-2013). Recursive partitioning analysis was used to group patients with similar overall survival (OS) based on clinical T/N stage, tumor grade, ER, PR, HER2, number of metastatic sites, and presence of bone-only metastases. Categories were created by amalgamating homogeneous groups based on 3-year OS rates (stage IVA: >50%, stage IVB: 30%-50%, stage IVC: <30%).

Results: 16,187 patients were identified; median follow-up was 32 months. 65.2% had 1 site of distant metastasis, and 42.9% had bone-only metastases. Recursive partitioning analysis identified the number of metastatic sites (1 vs >1) as the first stratification point, and ER status as the second stratification point for both resulting groups. Additional divisions were made based on HER2 status, PR status, cT stage, tumor grade, and presence of bone-only metastases. After bootstrapping, significant differences in 3-year OS were noted between the 3 groups [stage IVB vs IVA: HR 1.58 (95% confidence interval 1.50-1.67), stage IVC vs IVA: HR 3.54 (95% confidence interval 3.33-3.77)].

Conclusions: Both anatomic and biologic factors yielded reliable and reproducible prognostic estimates among patients with metastatic disease. These findings support formal stratification of de novo stage IV breast cancer into 3 distinct prognosis groups.